Do You Have 2020 Vision?
Posted on Jan 02, 2020 by Shari Van Baale
Do you remember all of the chaos and concern as the new millennium approached? Everyone feared their computers and appliances with dates would shut down and fail to work again, as they only were set up to go to 1999 when they were created. What would happen when the first two digits changed to 20? No one knew, but a large amount of fear ensued.
We all survived that chaos, and here we are in 2020. Those of you who thought there would be flying cars by now are probably disappointed, though there are self-driving cars and appliances that can do just about anything for you. And we are still waiting for our shuttle that will move us to our new home on Mars.
Here are some of the 20 predictions for 2020, what people thought would happen by this year (from a USA Today article). If you want to see the rest, go to https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/12/22/2020-predictions-decades-ago-self-driving-cars-mars-voting/2594825001/.
- Life expectancy will rise to over 100. Nope. Futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted in 1999 that human life expectancy would rise to "over one hundred" by 2019, as a result of computerized monitors built into watches that could diagnose health problems. While Kurzweil may have accurately predicted health-related gadgets, living to 100 is not the norm … yet.
- Computers will be invisible. True, in some part. Kurzweil had several other prophecies for the year 2019, including invisible computers. Computers are in everything these days, especially in our smart devices. Of course, we still have desktop and laptop models, so they are not completely invisible. It would be pretty hard to get your job done entirely on your phone.
- Books will be dead. False, though they are dying. More and more people are getting their news online and reading e-books these days. Personally, I will always love reading the newspaper and books on paper.
- Your every move will be tracked. True, most say. Kurzweil predicted that "each individual’s practically every move (will be) stored in a database somewhere." Your TV, smartphone, Alexa, etc. all track what you view, where you go, and what you say these days, as does your web browser. Of course, in those countries without technology such as this, you can still do most daily things “incognito”.
- We'll have self-driving cars. True, while they do exist, they aren’t the norm, and there are still quite a few kinks to work out. There have been quite a few pedestrians hit by these vehicles, and well as other types of accidents reported.
- We'll have “personal companions”. True, just ask Alexa or Siri. In his 1999 book "Business @ the Speed of Thought," Bill Gates predicted personal devices that "connect and sync all your devices in a smart way, whether they are at home or in the office, and allow them to exchange data." This sounds an awful lot like what we do on a daily basis. Hardly anyone has a paper calendar anymore, as you can just ask your smart device to verbally tell you when your next appointment is.
- Global surface temperature will increase. True. Global warming is to blame for just about every weather phenomenon these days.
- Humans will set foot on Mars. Not yet. A 1996 report by the Space Studies Board of the National Research Council said that NASA would launch "possible human exploratory missions to the moon and Mars within the next quarter century". While we have sent several unmanned spacecraft there and there have been many movies about traveling to and even living on Mars, we have yet to send a man there.
- Here is a crazy one — Americans will work 26 hours a week. According to the USA Today article, “In 1968, it was thought that, by 2020, Americans would work 1,370 hours a year (or 26 hours a week), instead of the 1,940 hours (37 hours a week) that was average at the time.” While that seems like a great idea, unless our pay were to double, I doubt we could survive on the pay for only 26 hours at the current rate. In fact, it seems the average work week has increased, not decreased, as most people work 40 hours a week, if not more.
As we start this new decade, it might be fun to make some predictions of your own for the next 10 or 20 years, then look back on them and see what came to be.
Shari Van Baale
Communications Coordinator